┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ COMPREHENSIVE RUN PROFILE │
├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Runtime: 2026-10-30 14:00 │
│ Core Vectors -> Debt: 121.2% | Yield: 4.78% | AI Prod: 4.5% │
│ Friction Add-ons -> Demo: 28.5% | Sahm: 0.0 | Geo: 6.5 | Energy: 7.0 │
│ System State -> Total Structural Fragility Rating: 10.0/10 │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ DEBT SERVICE DYNAMICS │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Capital Cost (r): 4.78% | Real Growth (g): 2.01% | Net Spread (r - g): +2.77% │
│ Fiscal Trajectory -> EXPONENTIAL DEBT SPIRAL (r > g) │
│ Compounding Impact -> +3.36% / year added to Debt-to-GDP from interest alone │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
=== COMPREHENSIVE MACRO-ECONOMIC SCOREBOARD ===
Component Layer | Metric Label | Norm | Monitored Metric | Systemic Consequence / Status
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Leverage Framework | Debt-to-GDP: | 60.0 | 121.2 [Out-of-Norm] | Compounding drag: +3.36%/yr
Capital Cost | 5-Yr Yield (r): | 4.5 | 4.78 [Normal Baseline] | Spread over GDP (r - g): 2.77%
Innovation Engine | AI Prod Growth: | 2.0 | 4.5 [Normal Baseline] | Effective Real Output (g): 2.01%
Consumer Engine | Spending: | 68.0 | 67.6 [Normal Baseline] | Measures total domestic consumption share of GDP
Consumer Mood | Sentiment: | 85.0 | 48.1 [Out-of-Norm] | Dictates velocity of capital circulation
Social Health | Gini Index: | 0.4 | 0.46 [Normal Baseline] | High parameters cap velocity at lower levels
Demographics | Aging Ratio: | 50.0 | 28.5 [Normal Baseline] | Retirement overhang straining workforces & tax receipts
Labor Velocity | Sahm Rule: | 0.0 | 0.0 [Stable Baseline] | Measures non-linear labor market deterioration
Geopolitics | Fracture: | 2.0 | 6.5 [Out-of-Norm] | Deglobalization tax driving up baseline supply costs
Energy / Grid | Grid Strain: | 3.0 | 7.0 [Out-of-Norm] | Data center electricity demand pressuring utilities
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TALEB FRAGILITY STATUS : CRITICAL FRAGILITY (10.0/10) - System vulnerable to cascading shocks
SUSTAINABLE REAL GDP : 2.01% Real GDP
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2026-10-30 14:00
Econ-Macro-Risk Diagram
